January 1982 II

“I can see clearly now, the rain is gone.” So is much of the forest that formerly limited the view from here. Much of it is likely on the beaches around Santa Cruz by now. Even a minor flood can do wonders in regard to vegetation abatement.

A bit of rain is expected to continue through much of tomorrow, but it is not expected to be as torrential as it had been. Sporadic rain showers are expected on Wednesday. Otherwise, the weather should be mostly clear and dry. Perhaps the ground below all that pleasant weather will manage to drain a bit before rain resumes.

So far, this winter has not been as destructive as the winter of 1982. It has potential to worsen though. A few vehicles have been squashed by fallen trees near here. A few homes have been ruined elsewhere in the region. We have seen patio furniture and a few pieces of decking float by in Zayante Creek below the confluence with Bean Creek, but have not yet noticed any debris that obviously originated from houses. Plastic debris that remains on the scoured banks includes coolers, trash bins, basketballs, volleyballs, and an odd preponderance of jugs of liquid laundry detergent. With the exception of the laundry detergent, these items are easily claimed by the creeks from backyards.

Not only is this weather difficult for those who already lack shelter, but it also deprives a few more of their established shelter when it is most important. It was discouraging to see so many camping in their cars within the parking lot at Felton Faire while Felton Grove was evacuated. Even though everyone returned to their homes after the flood receded, it could not have been easy. Furthermore, a few of our excellent Community are not so fortunate.

Winter Continues

Winter should continue for more than a month and a half. It certainly does not seem like that now. Weather has been so pleasant and dry for so long, with no rain in the forecast.

Such weather has both advantages and disadvantages for the ecosystem here. It inhibits proliferation of vegetation that provides fuel for the following fire season. However, it also accelerates the desiccation of the minimal vegetation that develops, which advances the onset of the fire season. Regardless of the fire season, much of the native vegetation will be distressed by inadequate moisture if significantly more rain does not develop prior to the end of the rainy season.

This weather also has distinct advantages and disadvantages for those who lack shelter. Rain is obviously unpleasant for those who lack a roof, so a lack of rain has certain appeal. However, the weather gets much cooler at night during dry weather, which is quite unpleasant for those who lack warmth and insulating walls.

Although fewer people lack shelter here nowadays, and although the climate is relatively mild here, it is difficult to not worry about those who must contend with unpleasantly wintry weather for the next month and a half.

Fortunately, the pandemic that the rest of the World has been so concerned about has not been a very serious problem for the local homeless Community. However, common cold and flu viruses have been circulating at a normal rate. Such illnesses are difficult for anyone afflicted by one, but are even more so for those lacking shelter and the ability to be warm and comfortable during recovery.

Some who currently lack shelter here will likely procure domestic situations within the next few months. Such possibilities may not seem like much help now, but they are cause for pleasant anticipation.

Weather

Rain is forecast to possibly begin after noon on Tuesday, and possibly continue for a few days. Although the forecast is not definite, with only a chance of rain for most of the next few days, rain is likely for Wednesday. It is no surprise. It happens at this time of year.

Within the context of my other blog of horticultural topics, I write about weather as an asset to horticulture. Plant life needs it. Some prefer warmer weather to cooler weather. Others need more of a chill through winter. Some can survive longer than others without rain. Others want more moisture. Various plants require various combinations of weather, but they all need some sort of weather.

People are very different. We do not need any particular weather. We can enjoy weather while it is pleasant, but can choose to not do so. Furthermore, if weather gets to be too unpleasantly cool, warm or wet, most of us can find shelter in which to be more comfortable than we might otherwise be outside in the weather.

A few of us lack the option of finding adequate shelter when the weather gets to be too uncomfortable, such as it will with the rain that is forecast for the next few days. As the terminology defines, the homeless lack homes.

Fortunately, the local climate is relatively mild. The weather does not get as cold as it does in other climates. Cold weather generally does not last for too long. Nor does rainy weather. Nonetheless, just a few hours of mildly cold or rainy weather can be unhealthy or even dangerous.

Fortunately, not many people lack homes or shelter locally. Nonetheless, one person without shelter during potentially unhealthy or dangerous weather is one too many.

Weather often contributes to the unpleasantries of homelessness.

Winter 2021

Autumn will capitulate to winter in about two weeks. December 21 will be both the Winter Solstice and the shortest day of the year. After a month without rain and only slowly cooling temperatures, the weather will continue to cool and likely get cold at times, with significantly more rain, as the days slowly lengthen. A bit of rain is possible after midnight tonight, with more rain possible after Saturday. It is unlikely that winter will be as mild and dry as autumn has been until now.

Winter is a necessary season in nature, and allows the Southern Hemisphere to get a turn with summer. Many of us enjoy the cool weather, rain and change in scenery as deciduous trees defoliate. Unfortunately though, cool weather and rain are uncomfortable and potentially dangerous for those who lack shelter.

It is difficult to exclude rain and retain warmth without roofs and walls. It is difficult to recover from illness without a warm and dry situation. Our Community is so very fortunate that so few remain unsheltered nowadays, especially after so many lost homes to the CZU Fire two summers ago.

Winter can be somewhat difficult for those who inhabit homes as well. It is the time of year that leaks in roofs are discovered and need to be repaired. The cost of fuel or electricity for heating increases, especially for those who lack the option of burning wood for heat. Even those who use only wood for heat must have purchased it at one time or another. Evacuation below the CZU Fire burn area may be necessary prior to heavy rain.

It will not last forever. We know that it can be uncomfortable, difficult and expensive, but it is only one of four seasons. Spring begins in three and a half months.

First Rain

Weather forecast at about 8:00 this morning, October 17, 2021 (which is incidentally the anniversary of the Loma Prieta Earthquake).

According to the weather forecast from this morning, as illustrated above, rain should start to fall at any time, now that it is after four. It is delayed by about two hours according to the current forecast. Clouds are already here, with more arriving over Bonny Doon.

This first episode of rain is not expected to last more than three hours, with only a forty percent chance of rain for the last hour. It will not be much. Nonetheless, it will be the first of the rainy season. More sustained rain showers are predicted for Wednesday, Friday and afterward.

Some of us who enjoy such weather are pleased with the first rain. It freshens the forests and home gardens, and can be a good excuse to stay inside and cozy by a warm fire and under a dry roof.

Those who are not so pleased with rain are aware that it is how seasons progress here. The weather is excellent for most of the time, but for a few brief months annually, it gets cool and rainy. Such cool and rain weather is unpleasant for those who lack the option of staying inside and cozy by a warm fire, or under a reliably dry roof.

That is why so many within our esteemed Community provide tents and tarps for those who lack domestic situations. Such provisions can not solve homelessness, but can make it a bit more bearable for those experiencing it. Fortunately, there are not as many who need such provisions here as there had been only a few years ago.

It will be a while before the rainy season ends next spring. Until then, some degree of damp and uncomfortably cool weather are will be unavoidable. Our resourceful Community will do what it must to contend with it.

Rainy Season

Steven Michael Ralls Memorial Tree appreciates rain.

December 13 is the birthday of our dearly departed friend Steven Ralls. His ‘Steven Michael Ralls Memorial Tree‘ that was planted on May 2, for the third anniversary of his passing, is doing well, and likely appreciates what transpired overnight. Now that it got the opportunity to disperse roots through its first season in the ground, it will receive no more supplemental irrigation.

Such irrigation will no longer be necessary. The tree is a native Monterey cypress, which survives on annual rainfall, within a locally limited season. It was only occasionally irrigated through its first season, while it was busy dispersing roots. It should do well without any such intervention next year. Now that the rainy season started, the soil will not get dry until late next spring.

Yes, it is now the beginning of the rainy season here. The second small storm passed through early this morning and continues as I write this. The first arrived on Friday night. A minor prior storm was something of a lone stray, and did little to disrupt the naturally dry weather pattern that had persisted since late last spring. Now, more rain is expected for Wednesday afternoon.

For most of us with roofs, rain will be an asset. It sustains the forests and replenishes the aquifers. This year, it will rinse away the ashy dust deposited by the CZU Lightning Complex Fires. For those without roofs, rain, although appreciated, can cause significant problems. Prior to the CZU Lightning Complex Fires, very few homeless people resided here. It is not as simple now.

Sadly, many local residents lost their homes to the CZU Lightning Complex Fires. Although most are now residing in homes, even if just temporarily, some are not. Many are still cleaning up the mess where their homes had been. Rain will obviously complicate such unpleasant tasks. Furthermore, debris flows, which become more likely as rain continues, are now a major concern.

The end of the fire season at the beginning of the rainy season is no consolation for those who already lost their homes to fire.

No Rain

January 22 is the date of the last locally recorded rainfall. That was three and a half weeks ago. There is only about a %25 chance of rain predicted for next Sunday, a week from today. That does not seem too promising. The probability for rain might decrease just as easily as it might increase. Even if it does not change, there is a %75 chance that there will be no rain next week.

Also, temperatures have been unseasonably mild lately, with no more frost expected for the season. In fact, temperatures are not expected to drop below the mid 40s at night anytime soon. Daytime temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s. Although it would be unrealistic to expect this weather to continue through this last month of winter, it sure feels like spring now.

Flora in the region is expressing its appreciation for, or confusion from, such excellent weather. Acacia dealbata is in full bloom, implying that stone fruit trees will bloom soon too. Apples and pears bloom shortly afterward. Unfortunately, resumption of wintry weather could ruin early bloom and fruit set. There are risks and consequences associates with such delightful weather.

The lack of rain necessitates irrigation of lawns, landscapes and gardens, which is more work for those of us who live in homes. For those of us who lack homes, the same lack of rain negates the need for waterproof shelter. Mild temperatures that are comfortable for those who lack a home to heat at night are potentially detrimental to the fruit that others grow in their gardens.

No one can change the weather. It would be futile to complain abut it. Those of us who can benefit from it should appreciate it while we can. We know that winter is not done yet.

Cost of Living

While looking at real estate in Oklahoma, it is apparent why homelessness in not so prevalent there. It is probably similar to many other places in America. Perhaps it is more accurate to say that this region and a few others are not so similar to the rest of America. After all, there are more of those places than there are of these. They are what is more normal. This is not normal.

It is easy to imagine that harsh climate would be a deterrent to homelessness. It probably is to transient homeless people who migrate to climates that are more conducive to homelessness. However, there really are not many homeless people who are transient, even here. Almost all homeless people live in their respective Communities, where they were before homelessness.

The cost of living is more relevant to homelessness than climate. There are not as many homeless people in Oklahoma simply because rent and real estate is so much more affordable there, even relative to the lower regional average of wages. Many more people who want to purchase a home can. Just about anyone with an average job can afford the regionally inexpensive rent.

Another dynamic that is not often considered is that people in Oklahoma and many other regions can live on their own property, even without what would be considered to be a habitable or ‘compliant’ residence. Those who own property might live in recycled mobile homes that may not comply to local building codes. Some might live in less than that, rather than be homeless.

There would be so much less homelessness in some parts of California if that were possible here. Some of the homeless in Felton own undeveloped and otherwise useless parcels that could accommodate all of the few who presently remain homeless here.

Rainy Season

The first storm since spring left more than an inch and a half of rain by the time the sun came up on Wednesday morning. Rain that started with the second storm that arrived this morning, and is still falling as I write this, is expected to continue through Monday, followed by showers through the foreseeable forecast. The dry summer is over. It is now officially the rainy season.

Are we concerned about those lacking adequate shelter? Well, of course we are. It is terribly uncomfortable and potentially dangerous to be out in the weather when the weather is like this. Those who live out in forested areas are vulnerable to falling limbs and trees, as well as potential flooding. While cold and wet, it is more difficult to recover from illness, or just avoid illness.

However, the situation is not as bad as it could be, or as bad as it was years ago, when there were many more of us without homes, and lacking resources. This season, there are fewer of us lacking shelter than there have been in a very long time. The same resources that have always been available are still there for those who need them. More of us have resources of our own.

We must still watch out for each other. This is just the beginning of what will become a more difficult rainy season. When it does not rain, it will likely be cold. That is just how weather works. At least we happen to live in a relatively temperate climate. It does not get as rainy as Western Washington, or as cold as Minnesota. We will get through it as well as we somehow always do.

Perhaps, this year, we will get through the rainy season even better than we typically do.

9%

Wasn’t that what the forecast was? There was a 9% chance of precipitation over night? I know it is difficult to say. With all the modern technology available for such predictions, such figures change constantly. Regardless, most of us don’ t take a 9% chance of precipitation seriously. It rarely means anything, and even when it does, it is rarely more than a few drops off the eaves.

Realistically, what came through early this morning was not much more than a few drops off the eaves, but it was enough to remind us of what time of year this is. Pleasantly warm and dry weather is predicted through the week. In October though, the weather can be expected to slowly get cooler and wetter. It is impossible to say when it will rain next, but we know that it will.

Fortunately, there are very few of us who presently lack shelter. Those of us who are living outside are reasonably outfitted to do so. If necessary, tarps and a bit of dry bedding are available from where they are stored. We can always get more. Homelessness is not easy, particularly as summer becomes autumn, and then winter. We do what we must to get through the weather.

We are also very fortunate to live in such a remarkably compassionate Community, and within such a mild climate. The resources that are available to those of us who might need them are provided by others in the Community, most of whom live in homes and are inexperienced with the difficulties of homelessness. Not many Communities are so generous and compassionate.

Of course, the climate helps too. We need not contend with the severely cold and snowy weather that other regions experience during winter. After the earlier drizzle, the sky is already clear.