Real estate is depreciating significantly. There is no easier manner in which to say so. Some predict that this will be the most significant adjustment of the real estate market in modern American history. This adjustment is expected to be most severe within the first year, and then to continue for a few years. The more overpriced markets and overpriced properties will likely be affected most.
Recession, inflation, interest rates and the many economic variables that affect the real estate market are all so confusing. Their influences are undeniable though. Real estate investments are losing value. Rental properties will likely be generating less revenue soon. It all seems to be so unpleasant.
However, depreciation of real estate may improve the potential for some who would like to purchase a home to do so. Also, declining rental rates may facilitate procurement of rented domestic situations by some who would benefit from them.
The local real estate market has been unreal for quite a while. Average and better than average incomes have been insufficient to sustain mortgages or rents. Although declines of real estate markets are considered to be detrimental to the economies of their respective societies, they make real estate more realistic.
It will be interesting to observe the results of the declining real estate market, particularly in conjunction with what already seems to be a declining rate of houselessness. Any benefits from such loss would be gratifying.
Meanwhile, although many homes were damaged by severe weather since the end of December, only about eight were destroyed within all of Santa Cruz County. Those that were damaged should be repairable, so those who inhabit them should not lack them for too long.
The innate risks associated with real estate here do not deter many of us from continuing to live here.
Prior to March, I intend to return to the Pacific Northwest for two weeks. Prior to May, I hope to return to Southern California and continue almost to Phoenix for two weeks. I am confident that both trips will be very enjoyable. They always are. I should enjoy such trips more often, and perhaps go to a few places that I have not been to yet.
I have already been to some rather excellent places, and experienced many of them more intimately than average tourists do. I explored Steinbeck’s favorite sites in Monterey with a direct descendent of some of the first Spanish people to arrive there. I camped in an abandoned home with rain seeping through the ceiling west of Portland just to enjoy time with my uncle. I have visited homes of celebrities in the Los Angeles region simply by following my colleague to his projects. All of these experiences were excellent, even Las Vegas. However, none were here.
I really can not say that ‘here’ is necessarily any better than ‘there’, wherever ‘there’ is. Nor can I say that ‘there’ is any better than ‘here’. I only know I enjoyed every ‘there’ that I have been to, but the one ‘here’ that I know is home.
Houselessness is certainly no vacation. Yet, like vacation and travel, it instills a unique appreciation for home. For residential or employment opportunities, some who lack a stable domestic situation may decide to relocate and make their home somewhere else, even if they eventually return to their original or previous home because it is where they prefer to be. Some may lack such options, so simply stay within their respective home region. Every situation and every individual is different. Ultimately, whether within a domestic situation or not, there’s no place like home.
Starting coffee for the crew in the morning is a mundane task, after opening the gates and turning the heater on in our meeting room. Even after the heater has been off for a night of cold weather, the meeting room and adjoining galley are not too uncomfortably cold by morning. I do not give much thought to the unusually rainy weather right outside. After all, the rain is outside, and I am inside with coffee and a heater.
There is not much view from the window in the galley. The yard below is storage for several dumpsters. It is surrounded by a fence and the Memorial Grove. A busy road and associated bridge over Zayante Creek are just beyond that.
Since New Year’s Eve, some of us have been watching Zayante Creek from the window in the galley. The water is normally barely visible. Because of the storms, it had risen to within only a few feet of the yard downstairs on a few occasions. It will likely be about that high again by morning.
The bridge is prominent within the center of the view from the window. Under its closest corner, on this side of the road and on this side of Zayante Creek, I can see a site that had sometimes been inhabited by unhoused neighbors. It would be very unpleasant to be out there now, in the cold and damp weather, and also dangerous as Zayante Creek rises again overnight. It is very muddy there after getting submerged earlier.
I do not consider that much though. Instead, I remember how homey it was when friends lived there. Although it was not as comfortable as where I now observe it from, to more than a mere few, it was more comfortable than being out in the rain. Furthermore, it was where some people really lived, even if merely temporarily. They did much of what people do in homes, as if homes were unnecessary luxuries. Although I do not party like most, I attended a few celebrations there. I directly witnessed the extreme generosity and graciousness of others of society who had no business under such a bridge. Regardless of how pleased I am that almost everyone who had been unhoused back then presently resides within comfortable and stable domestic situations, I also miss some of how it was in what now seems to be history.
Discontinuance of my other primary blog will be completely different from discontinuance of this blog last July. Articles from my weekly column will continue to post on that blog on Mondays and Tuesdays, so even without recycled old articles and all that other hooey in the future, some readers may not notice much of a difference. Realistically, that was what the blog was originally intended for.
Actually, I discontinued writing for the other blog quite a while ago. As for this blog, posts there are mostly recycled. Recycling is cheating, but writing occupies too much time that I could devote to other more important interests, such as gardening and travel. If I were to continue to devote so much time to writing, I should write books instead.
What makes discontinuance of each of these two blogs so completely different is that the primary remains relevant while the secondary does not remain as relevant as it originally was. The secondary was intended to “feature articles and insight about the distinguished small group of displaced or socially marginalized people and their friends in Felton”. So, there is not much to feature now that so few remain displaced or socially marginalized.
Of course, the situation is dynamic. A scant few remain displaced, although less socially marginalized than prior. A few others become displaced about as often as those who are already displaced procure domestic situations, although they are likely to encounter less competition for limited resources. Regardless, pursuit to obtain insight from so few would be intrusive.
Insight regarding those who had formerly been displaced or socially marginalized would be more relevant, but eventually, would not be particularly interesting. Many of us inhabit comfortable homes with modern utilities and conveniences. Many of us are gainfully and gratifyingly employed. Others doing so becomes mundane.
As a casual and almost outside observer, I am fascinated by the lifestyles of others. I happen to be quite pleased with my lifestyle, but can totally understand why it would be unappealing to most. Also, I can understand why others are pleased with their particular lifestyles, although such lifestyles do not appeal to me.
It baffles me though, that some believe that their particular lifestyles should be desirable to everyone else. I would not recommend a lifestyle as simple and primitive as mine to anyone who would not appreciate it. I appreciate the same courtesy. It is presumptuous for someone to recommend a more complicated and modern lifestyle to me merely because it is what most supposedly prefer.
Besides, I do not observe many who are any happier with their particular lifestyle than I am with mine. To the contrary, I observe many who are less satisfied with their seemingly preferable lifestyles.
I do believe that most who lack domestic situations should prefer at least a bit more comfort in their lifestyles. When the weather gets as cool as it has been, warmth and some sort of enclosure to contain such warmth should be preferable. I also assume that plumbing is desirable, even though my own homes are equipped with only minimal plumbing. I really do not know though. Some or many of my presumptions could be partially or even mostly inaccurate.
I also believe that those who live in luxurious penthouses on top of skyscrapers in big cities should be happier with homes on ground level with spacious gardens. It is difficult for me to imagine why they choose to live in such expensive homes that lack so much. Nonetheless, they do so, while they can afford to live almost anywhere. Obviously, their chosen lifestyles appeal to them.
A decline of homelessness within Felton is not too implausible. Felton is not a very populous town. Not many unhoused people live here. If one procures a stable domestic situation, it causes a nearly ten percent decline of homelessness.
If most procure stable domestic situations, as during the past few years, the decline is much more significant for Felton, although less significant regionally. In other words, such a localized decline does not accurately represent a more important regional trend.
However, when other towns and more populous cities also document even minor declines of homelessness, it suggests that such declines could potentially be the beginning of a trend.
Malibu collected statistical data regarding homelessness there last winter to determine that only a third as many as those who had been homeless a year earlier remained unhoused. That is gratifying information for those involved. Yet, as major as such a decline is locally, it is minor relative to the collective population of Los Angeles County. It is difficult to attribute this minor localized decline to a more broadly regional trend.
The possibility of a trend became more evident when cumulative data regarding homelessness within all of Los Angeles County confirmed an encouragingly major deceleration of the formerly rapid increase of the regional rate of homelessness. Like Malibu, a few municipalities confirmed minor declines of homelessness.
Could this be the beginning of a trend? Could the rate of homelessness be declining?
Orange County and San Francisco County also reported declines of homelessness. Statistically, relative to their respective populations, such declines seem to be minor; but even minor declines within such significant populations are surprisingly major.
Perhaps it is too early to recognize these declining rates of homelessness as a trend. It will be interesting to observe statistical data regarding homelessness within other Communities.
Attendance was good for the Work Day at Felton Presbyterian Church yesterday. It seemed to me that there were more participants than there typically are. However, there were noticeably fewer current and former members of the Homeless Community than there typically are. This is partly attributable to the declining rate of local homelessness. It is more attributable to new priorities of those who had formerly been unhoused or unemployed, but are now employed and involved with the responsibilities of domestic lifestyles.
By the end of the Work Day at noon, nearly everyone was working outside, likely because most of the interior tasks had been completed. Some of us stayed a bit late, more to catch up on what others had been up to since the previous Work Day than to get more done. It was gratifying to be asked about the Homeless Community in Felton. It was even more gratifying to not have much to say in that regard.
So many who had formerly lacked homes here have procured stable domestic situations during the past few years. So many who had lacked employment have become sufficiently employed to sustain their respective domestic situations. Homelessness as well as unemployment are not such prominent problems within our Community as they had been. Therefore, there is not much to say about it. Nor is there much to write about, which is why this blog has been discontinued.
Improvements within the Homeless Community should be gratifying to everyone within the collective Community, particularly those who have been so generous and proactive with implementing or assisting with such improvements.
Incidentally, although a declining rate of local homelessness seems to be inconsistent with the currently horrendous rates of homelessness throughout America, a few other Communities are also noticing a decline of homelessness, including, surprisingly, San Francisco!
An obituary typically precedes a memorial, to inform the Community of a subsequent memorial. In retrospect, the memorial was at 3:00 last Saturday afternoon at the Footbridge Service Center, at 150 Felker Street in Santa Cruz. Those of us in Felton only became aware of it two days prior, on Thanksgiving Day. Time was insufficient to gather the information that is necessary for the composition of an obituary.
Besides, it is not easy. It is downright difficult. I will not even attempt to compose an obituary now. It will take a few days.
To be perhaps disrespectfully brief, our old friend, David Lindberg of Boulder Creek, while asleep early in the morning of November 13, succumbed to infection associated with a scorpion bite. He had attempted to meet with a physician at HPHP (Homeless Persons Health Project) during the previous day, but arrived late, so intended to return during the following morning. He had not perceived the infection to be severe enough to justify seeking emergency medical attention at Dominican Hospital earlier. He was fifty five years old, and living unhoused in Santa Cruz at the time.
What began as a single Steven Michael Ralls Memorial Tree, is developing into a grove too quickly. At the beginning of the rainy season, another Monterey cypress was to be added for another old friend who succumbed to cardiac arrest last year. Now, a third Monterey cypress must be added for David Lindberg. Fortunately, two more Monterey cypress will be assets to the landscape. However, it is saddening that they are necessary. Although death is an unavoidable consequence of life, it seems that too much of it has been happening during the past few years. Perhaps that is a consequence of remembering.
Wednesday, September 22, will be the first day of autumn. The nights have been getting a bit longer and a bit cooler for a while already, and will continue to do so for a while more. The rainy season could begin at any time. Although days begin to get longer on December 21, the first day of winter, weather continues to get cooler through the early part of winter. Indian summer may or may not delay the inevitable prior to November.
Most of us will spend more time inside as the seasons progress, perhaps with a fire in a stove or fireplace. Walls and ceilings retain warmth. Roofs exclude rain. The cooler and wetter weather of autumn and winter is generally not a serious problem. It is an asset to gardens and forests, and temporarily relieves the anxiety of fire season.
However, for those who lack walls, ceilings and roofs, the impending cooler and wetter weather can be very unpleasant. Options for generation of warmth, and the retention of such warmth, are both limited. Exclusion of rain may necessitate the use of obtrusively visible tents or tarps, which draw attention to already precarious situations. Those who reside temporarily within the dry spaces below bridges might be displaced if substantial rainfall overwhelms the drainage capacity of the associated creeks or river.
Several families who formerly inhabited homes that were destroyed by the CZU Fire last summer will continue to inhabit their respective properties without their homes through this autumn and winter. Some inhabit campers or similar vehicles, which are significantly more comfortable than tents. Regardless, houseless lifestyles of any sort are certainly not easy. Some who were deprived of their former domestic situations by the Fire are unable to inhabit their respective properties, so needed to relocate, even if just temporarily.
Clients sometimes ask me if I can recommend a qualified arborist, gardener or landscape designer. (I am a horticulturist and consulting arborist.) For many years, I have been unable to do so. Some clients inform me that they spent millions of dollars on their home, so are willing to spend whatever is necessary to maintain the associated trees and gardens. Their expenditure is irrelevant. I still can not recommend qualified horticultural professionals who are not already overwhelmed with the demand for their respective expertise.
The problem is that horticultural industries are not lucrative. Most who are employed with such industries do not earn income that is sufficient to afford to live here or anywhere within practical proximity. (It is rather ironic for a region that had formerly been famous for horticultural commodities.) Consequently, they must live and work elsewhere.
This is one of the few problems associated with gentrification. Those who can afford to purchase expensive homes can not purchase what is not available to them. That is why so many formerly elaborate home landscapes now appear to be inadequately maintained. People who might be wealthy by the standards of other Communities seem to live in squalor locally. Their equity would be more useful and enjoyable elsewhere.
Gentrification also contributes to increasing rates of houselessness, as many more of those who become deprived of a respective domestic situation, for any reason, are unable to procure another. Not only are mortgages and rents prohibitively expensive, but they are reserved for those who are already established within a Community, with exemplary credit and comparably exemplary rental history. Sadly, the loss of a domestic situation typically compromises both credit and rental history.
Gentrification certainly has many advantages. However, those who benefit from it must unfortunately contend with a few of its innate disadvantages.